the flood and drought in both first stage and second stage of rainy season in fujian province were forecasted by the ways of line regression prediction equation and three kinds of artificial neural network models, the results show : the backpropagation ( bp ), radial basis function ( rbf ) and elman neural network models are much better than line regression prediction equation in historical sample fittings, independent sample test, actual prediction ability (3)运用线性回归预报方程和三种人工神经网络模型对福建汛期旱涝进行预测的实验表明:bp、径向基(rbf)和elman这三种人工神经网络模型在历史样本拟合精度上、独立样本检验结果和网络模型的实际预测能力上都明显优于传统的线性回归方法。
the flood and drought in both first stage and second stage of rainy season in fujian province were forecasted by the ways of line regression prediction equation and three kinds of artificial neural network models, the results show : the backpropagation ( bp ), radial basis function ( rbf ) and elman neural network models are much better than line regression prediction equation in historical sample fittings, independent sample test, actual prediction ability (3)运用线性回归预报方程和三种人工神经网络模型对福建汛期旱涝进行预测的实验表明:bp、径向基(rbf)和elman这三种人工神经网络模型在历史样本拟合精度上、独立样本检验结果和网络模型的实际预测能力上都明显优于传统的线性回归方法。